University of Wyoming Israel Election Survey results so far (as of January 21 2013).
If you have not yet taken the survey, please follow this link:
https://survey.uwyo.edu/TakeSurvey.aspx?SurveyID=m6KM9om2I
1. The most arbitrary result: survey results compiled to predict Knesset representation. This was not done “scientifically” but “mathematically” in the sense that indices were assigned to various results, and the indices added, divided and combined until reaching a result that could result in 120 members of Knesset.
|
5 |
Am Shalem |
|
11 |
Habayit Hayehudi |
|
4 |
Hadash |
|
14 |
Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni |
|
17 |
Israel Labor Party |
|
11 |
Kadima |
|
26 |
Likud Yisrael Beitenu |
|
13 |
Meretz - Israel`s Left |
|
8 |
Shas |
|
2 |
United Torah Judaism |
|
9 |
Yesh Atid |
|
120 |
How this was done:
% Individual party vote times 3
+ % vote for three parties result
+ Number predicting five largest parties
+ ½ % the vote for PM, assigned to the PM’s party
+ 1/3 % believing parties will be in the coalition.
Results divided by 6 and rounded to produce 120. (more than 0.33 rounded up, otherwise rounded down).
Some scores were eliminated: parties not receiving more than 10% in the individual vote, or more than 15% in the “vote for three parties” were excluded from the individual vote results; parties that received less than 15% in vote for three were were excluded from the three party vote results. Similar limitations were imposed on the other categories.
2. Prime Minister: Netanyahu collected 32% of the vote of this group. If the center/left parties united, they would have won, with almost half (about 47%) of the vote. Add votes for Avigdor Lieberman and Aryeh Elad, and at 35% the right wing is still far behind.
3. What coalition will emerge? According to the results so far, it could include HaBayit Hayehudi, Likud-Yisrael Beteynu, Kadima, Shas, and UTJ. According to the projection above, this would be 58 MKs. The average projection for the size of the coalition is about 69. The next largest votes were for Tzippi Livni; in this projection that would yield 72 mandates. Or, Yesh Atid or Labor, with equal numbers of respondents predicting they will be part of the government, resulting in 69 or 67 mandates voting for the government, closer to the survey’s prediction.
4. Any notable results?
a. Netanyahu is widely expected to win of course.
b. But in this survey, the single-party vote is heavily left wing, and the three-party vote is left/moderate, with, for example, Meretz doing about the same as Likud/Beitenu. In fact, only Labor, Likud and Meretz got more than 25% in the “vote for three” question. In the calculations for MKs above, some results were excluded; using only the parties that were included in this calculation, % Individual party vote times 3 + % vote for three parties results in three times the raw inedixe for left wing parties.
This is hardly representative of the Israeli electorate!
c. Respondents were more realistic about who will actually be the largest parties: few thought Meretz would number among them. Likud, Shas—and Labor (!) got the most predictions. Tzippi Livni, Habayit Hayehudi and Kadima got the next number of votes (in that order) but all around half the numbers of those predicting Likud, Shas and Labor to be among the largest three parties.
d. The left/center leaning is not particularly surprising, although the strong showing of Labor is. Labor seems to be a solid “second or third choice” 10% voted for Likud—but 32% would have included it if they could vote for three parties: same as Likud and more than Meretz, both of which polled higher in the traditional “single party “ vote.
e. Another surprise, to me, is that Am Shalem polled identical numbers to Kadima in the “vote for three parties” question. Am Shalem played no significant role in predictions for largest parties or coalition partners, but this could mean it is a party worth watching.
5. What issues are most important.
My survey did not include “Peace” as one of the named issues—but this was the most frequently mentioned word in the “other” responses. Security and Social issues topped the list of responses, with economic issues coming not far behind. Ten points behind Security came State of Palestine and Religious Divisions. Israeli Arabs and Haredim--two sectors of Israeli society who generally do not serve in the Army—had radically different levels: only 5% signified Haredim as an issue, but 17% noted Israeli Arabs.
6. Respondents
Only one respondent reported growing up in Israel. Most respondents completed high school in the USA. Two were from other Middle Eastern countries, and several completed high school in South America, UK, Germany, or Africa. About equal numbers were students; teachers (including professors, researchers, university faculty and others); or other (a rabbi, lawyers, professionals, etc.).
I’ll keep this survey open until well after the elections, and I’ll rethink the results of this survey based on additional responses returned. (Survey results show time submitted, so it will be possible to make adjustments to read the results after the Elections).
Seth Ward